well i got my jasons mixed up. moreland sounded kind of authoritative.. but his post was way longer than anything kelley ever puts up. my statement stands though.. like to hear lots of detailed ideas. synoptic pattern not just described but explained. today the board is buzzing.. always good to see.
i'm sure all that tstorm activity in the upper gulf and off the georgia coast precludes whatever low is going to develop. noticed on sfc obs that pressures are lower off the georgia coast already, maybe some weak turning out there. the models have it crossing north florida and moving west to wnw over the next three to five days.. no significant development on any, though.
joe b. brought up the trough left out near bermuda that various globals are tracking west under the merging ridges. so even if the gulf thing isnt a go, maybe something else out there by next week.
deep tropics.. joe b. also describes how the faster easterlies in the pacific shut things off, and now it has to propagate around the globe to maybe get us a storm or chain of them to come off africa. thats like watching motor oil drain.. pretty drawn out. noted that things shut down in the westpac around july 27.. say the easterly surge makes 8 degrees longitude a day.. about 100 degrees to go.. 'bout two weeks. right around august 10th. unless something is leading ahead.
or maybe my logic is flawed, i dunno.
HF 1921z01august