the disturbed weather is further east than expected. sort of weird that right now pressures off the east coast get lower as you go out.. related to that upper trough that seems to be splitting out over the central atlantic. so, the lowest pressures with this possible system are to the east, and the convection is lined on an axis from 400mi east of georgia to north florida to off the louisiana coast. different avn runs yesterday and tonight have the low forming in different places, or not forming at all.. just a trough and convection. what all this tells me is that most of the models assumed incorrect things about where the system would try to focus. could fire up in the northern gulf, could be off the southeast coast. the upper system is east of jacksonville.. so im starting to lean more in that direction. as a whole though, pretty high uncertainty with this thing still.
latest avn run is more interesting when it comes to the future of that broad low out in the central atlantic. most of the models are showing at least some kind of trough disturbance moving east from near bermuda next week. just another possible thing to watch down the road.
HF 0528z02august