anybody notice the invest out there? d1.0. this piece of the whole convective chain that extends from off sc to off la has developed underneath an upper low that has been spinning down for days.. same one was inland over georgia earlier this week. the eastward movement is probably a reflection of the movement of the dying upper system, not of whatever is happening at the surface. here's what i think: slow erratic movement into the weekend until the ridge builds overhead, easterly flow kicks in. then it backs into the coast as whatever it has become.. maybe just a rainstorm, maybe a tropical cyclone. cant be specific, none of the models have it initialized right.
now, add another layer of complexity: the gulf. there is also a good chance a low will form west of tampa between now and tomorrow. should both of these possible systems get going, their proximity makes it even more interesting.. could get a fujiwhara going. this is a weird, interesting situation.
noticed the nhc outlook from 5am: mentions more activity along a wave near 45w, and the current 98L as a weak low. the one other item of interest is the broad low near bermuda.. nao negative spawn. when the ridge tries to build back, this will also be a potential trouble spot, as the easterlies backing into it could easily generate the convection it needs.
all we need now is for africa to start spitting out the 'just add water' instant tropical storms.
i'm convinced all this is happening because i'm going on vacation next week. last time i took a trip in august was in 1992.. when andrew did his little dance on florida's face.
matthew youre back. try not to piss anybody off this time, eh? criminy, this is supposed to be fun.
HF 1531z02august