In reply to:

what i think: slow erratic movement into the weekend until the ridge builds overhead, easterly flow kicks in. then it backs into the coast as whatever it has become.. maybe just a rainstorm, maybe a tropical cyclone. cant be specific, none of the models have it initialized right.
now, add another layer of complexity: the gulf. there is also a good chance a low will form west of tampa between now and tomorrow

I noticed that also but wondered if the drier air might infiltrate that area before it got spun up. Like you said, it could get interesting PDQ.