Hey Kevin,

I certainly didn't mean to include you in the 'et als' but I'm coming down with a pretty bad headcold and couldn't think of everyone this morning. I think the low off the Atlantic is going to run into a roadblock compliments of high pressure building in from the North. Its sphere of influence appears to be far enough east to prevent the east coast low from going too far out to sea, but it's kind of tough to tell right now because "THEN WHAT?"

As for the ricreig's comments about the drier air, it's a beautiful day here in New Orleans. The skies are almost winter blue with a few puffy clouds here and there. It almost appears like this is an elongated upper trof, which I suspect will enhance the showers in the NE Gulf, but is probably transient in that it's heading SW so quickly that it's liable to be out of the picture in a day or two. This is a farily comlex weather pattern with ultimate results that are anyone's guess. I like HF's Fujiwara effect idea but that almost never happens between the Gulf and Atlantic.

I said on Tuesday that Friday PM to Saturday PM would be the key times in figuring out what was going to happen when I only saw the Gulf Low in the models. And while the Gulf moisture is definitely getting more concentrated today, I don't even want to guess. But since I have to, I'd say low pressure forms somewhere around 26.5/87.

Should be an interesting day. I'm enjoying the hell out of everyone's comments. It's kind of a 'bonus' situation, but if a home-grown system is all we can get, we might as well party down on it.

Steve