Boy, hard to vote against development when the models are lined up like this!

The Eta, CMC, and MM5 (PSU flavor) have a very similar solution for the evolution of whatever might develop over the next couple of days. (Which, BTW, isn't really development of the Upper Low NE of Jax, but a surface spin-up from the convection currently offshore in the Gulf) All create a closed surface low in the CentGOM, then track it NW with eventually landfalls from between Biloxi to Houston (although a couple of solutions keep it offshore for a while with no definative landfall). The AVN has a more northerly solution, with the low hugging the coast...this would be a rainmaker for S GA, S AL and NW FL, but not a real tropical system.

What really concerns me is the rapid development forecast by the models. It doesn't "look" right. (I know that is real nebulous, but it's a gut feeling of mine). I think the models are over-doing the development a good bit...at least I hope so!

So there are two real "issues" here...1) the models agreeing to this degree lends significant weight to the possibility of something forming. 2) the model solutions look unusual (to my eye) at best. So where do I fall in? Well, I think we should watch closely...last night I was convinced that nothing would crank up in the Gulf...but I was basing that on the upper low drifting back into the GOM. Now I am starting to lean towards SOME development in the GOM (look at the convection over the CentGOM already), but the evolution to not be as rapid as the models forecast.

<an aside...just did the noon show..mentioned the possibily of GOM development on the air, so you can be pretty sure nothing will happen now!>