well i kind of do want to put the horse ahead of the cart and say 'development for sure', but a couple of things are nagging. one is that the two things we are paying closest attention to.. the convection in the gulf and the swirl off georgia.. are actually one issue. the east of georgia low is looking less impressive.. the upper system has sheared out overhead and stopped supporting convection as well.. so it mostly has to rely on low level convergence until (and if) upper support comes back. and i might mention that the mesoscale picture out there is pretty confused. good doubt there. at the other end of the upper system that has split apart is the gulf convection.. marching south against the deep layer flow and kicking up tons of convection. though there are two focal points with this entire interest area.. neither is taking a dominant stance.. and how often has it been that a starving little surface low was 'subsidized' by dry air and/or robbed of inflow by some convection going off somewhere else. basically what happens now is either one or more surface lows can start vying for status on the disturbed axis or nothing in this big disturbance will get going. i dont see bob the friendly upper high around to shelter any of the whole system.. so theres just a lot of uncertainty.
as per my earlier mention of fujiwhara.. maybe thats going a little too far. really when you think about it the chances that both 'epicenters' on the disturbance can get going is kind of goofy (though possible), but their proximity would mean they'd interact. inflow competition or maybe an outflow shear brawl. so maybe not true 'circle your opponent' fujiwhara, but surely interaction.
by the way, wheres the gfdl run on 98L i want to see the cat 3 hitting georgia so i can laugh at the open wave on the next run.
do have the suspicion that something will come out of all this, but it aint gonna happen easy.
next week: watch near bermuda.
HF 2007z02august