Kevin
(Weather Master)
Sun May 19 2002 02:51 PM
Re: 2 Weeks

Well, it looks like anyone who says no Gulf development will be right. The system lost all of its convection last night, something that TRUE tropical cyclones in development don't do. Well, it also looks like anyone who says this hurricane season won't be active is going to be DEAD wrong. This little GOMEX area that has sparked our interest should be a sign of things to come. I do believe this hurricane season will be very vigorous, especally in the Carribbean and Gulf regions. Since these storms here have a typically better chance of making landfall than CV's do, this will be the area to watch. And the very warm waters and lower than normal sea level pressures only make conditions more favorable. Don't count out Cape Verde season, either. But I do have to say that the anomalies have been awfully cold over there the past 4-6 weeks or so. Also notice (as many have been saying) that Florida has NEVER gone more than 10 years without a major hurricane strike. Well, this August will be the tenth aniversery of Andrew's little tour of South Florida. Also, with 1969 being an analog for this year, and being that 1969 had high amounts of Carribbean activity, I am concerned about the fact that we could get another Camille type storm cranking this year with similar conditions in place. Of course, what it Camille hadn't went straight North into Louisiana, what if it would have had more of a NE component to it? And could history repeat itself this summer? More to come later, and all thoughts on this are welcome.


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