it seems discontinuous, but the invest this morning really is in the central gulf. i'd call it 99L though. anyhow most of the models have more or less taken it north towards louisiana.. then more to the west as it gets closer to the ridge. based on how it looks, having not even checked surface obs, i'd expect a depression within 24hr. not feeling really confident on steering since i doubt model initialization and layer analysis is on the money. we should get a more concrete idea of what's going to push likely bertha after recon shows up.. later today i think.
off the ga/sc coast there is still enough going on to warrant attention.. but it has consistently failed to focus as a point low in favor of being an elongated trough. actually getting some shear over there. more focused convergence today than before, but still plenty of doubt about more organization. bastardi says it should move more NW... i'm thinking probably more W.
bermuda area.. still just a big low level vortex with a few scant convective cells in convergence bands well away from the center. this is yet another pattern induced, trough split generated wannabe. still waiting for easterly influence that will either gel or fail to generate yet another disturbance.
deep tropics seem to think it's february. can only wonder when they'll start up.
HF 1619z03august