FORECAST POSTED: 8/03/02/ 9:00 PM EDT

ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK:

A lot of uncertainty tonight...

I will not include all of the model forecasts in my discussion tonight. The majority of the models develop a low center too far east. A center is very evident on satellite imagery over the central Gulf. In fact, this is a Mid Level Circulation (MLC) located between 5,000 and 10,000 feet up in the atmosphere. Now besides the decline of convection, there hasn't been a whole lot of change over the past 24 hours. The reason for the disorganization, is because of the lack of convection. Well why is there a lack of convection? We have an upper low to the west of the MLC. This upper low is causing a lot of vertical shear over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, any convection does develop around the center gets blown off.

Now this upper low is forecasted to continue moving west. In addition, an upper level ridge of high pressure is still forecasted to develop over the low, making the conditions for development a little more favorable. Now I must say, the chances of development are a bit lower than they were yesterday. However, I am not saying that this low no longer has the chance of development. If the shear does weaken as forecasted, we may begin to see some development. But let me remind you that development, if any, would be extremely slow to occur.

The forecast track has also become more uncertain. We can't heavily rely on the models because #1 they are MODELS and #2 they show a low developing to far EAST. So until the models can get a better handle on the situation, I am still going with yesterday's forecast track. A slow north to NNW drift can be anticipated over the next few days. Heavy rain will move over areas like Pensacola, Mobile, Biloxi, Gulfport and eventually New Orleans. Alabama and extreme western Florida will be on the wet side first. Then the ridge to the north will begin to have a greter impact on the low by pushing the system more to the west.

There isn't a whole lot more that I can say...its just a wait and see kinda thing. I will try my best to update the discussion twice. a day. The next discussion is scheduled for 6:00 AM eastern time.

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DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL NEWS OR THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

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