this is getting repetitous. yet another low level swirl near our shores that by rights should be developing convection.. but doesnt. its under a ridge, over 85 degree water.. what more does it need? the pope to ordain it? pretty much everything we've been looking for to develop this year has been bastardi's home grown variety.. stuff that pops up in the wake of trough splits. this is really a false alarm pattern.. it produces what could easily be a tropical system, but gives what turns out to be a nonconvective swirl that drifts around for days. i'm still convinced that one of these areas.. central gulf or off the carolinas.. will get organized.. models are still hanging on that idea.. but i see no clear cut trigger mechanism to trip them off. maybe the next amplification will get the one off the carolinas.. globals have it alternately recurving and getting squashed east or south. gulf system is just a strong convective burst away from taking off.. as were the two july gulf invests that never got going down there.
2000 was the year of fish spinners and storms that faded as they approached our shores.
2001 was the year of storms that outran their convection and either ran west at low latitude or recurved if they crossed 20N.
2002 is becoming the year of lingering threats that never materialize. of course the dangerous part of the season still lies ahead.. but any particular hurricane season tends to have a theme established early that is repeated again and again. also.. a quiet early season argues for an active mid season.. you can draw all the parallels to historic seasons of the past you want.. but what this year reminds me of the most so far is the last two.
HF 0411z04august