Minor Update at 4PM:
Looks Like we have TD#2 in the gulf... more to come shortly.
Minor Update at Noon:
The Gulf System is looking bette now, but still too close to land to really leap forth. Aircraft Reconnaissance is heading out tomorrow to check on it.

Original Update:

There is a trough of low pressure that's creating two interesting areas worth watching. One in the north central Gulf about due south of Mobile, Alabama, and another east of the carolinas. Both are driftng, and both could slowly develop.

Each system is in a fair local environment to develop quicker, but outside features (like an upper low near Texas) are keeping things in check. There is hardly any chance of either deepining quickly into anything dangerous, but still one of the two hotspots may have a chance. The one East of the Carolinas will tend to move south a bit, and then probably out to sea. If and when that happens it could get faily close to Florida, so it's worth an eye. By the time it does this conditions will be more favorible for development. The gulf system will cause rain somewhere, or at least enhancing the normal afternoon variety storms. This one has a better chance of development if it can hold out a bit longer and keep itself away from land.

What's my opinion on the chances of the gulf one forming?

code: 

forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)

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Atlantic?

code: 

forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)

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Both could go either way at this point, we'll have to wait and see just a few more days.

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Triopical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow Even more on the links page.

- [mike@flhurricane.com]