NOTE: The discussion on the rest of the Atlanitc basin will be available soon, including the discussion on the east coast low!

FORECAST POSTED: 8/04/02/ 5:30 PM EDT

CURRENT ACTIVE ATLANTIC STORMS...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2

At 5 PM EDT the center of tropical depression two was located near latitude 29.0 north and longitude 88.5 west or about 85 miles south-southeast of Biloxi, Mississippi. The depression is moving toward the north at 6MPH.

Model Forecasts

AVN- Slow NNW drift towards New Orleans. Then, a curve to the west towards Houston with a turn WSW.

CMC- Slow track towards the NNW over southeast Lousiana. Then takes a WNW to NW track until the remants reaches Dallas.

MM5- Keeps the low pressure area right along the coast moving west towards Houston. Not much weakening since its half over water.

NOGAPS- NW track into southeast Lousiana towards Alexandria. Then dissipating after surning SW between Houston and Brownsville.

UKMET- Takes low just south of the Lousiana coast and then takes the center inland near Lake Charles.

ECMWF- Also keeps low near the coast.

So as you can see the models are generally in good agreement. The big question is how close to the coast will this tropical depression move. Either way, the depression will not weaken all that much during the first 24 hours over land. Tropical storm Allison is a good example. Allison stayed inland for a week but didn't weaken all that much. Allison was close enough to the coast, that it still had a moisture source.

Mobile and Pensacola are already starting to get some of the outer rain bands. However, it is Mississippi and Louisiana that will get the bulk of the rainfall. 5-10 inches of rainfall can be anticipated with this system. Now if the depression stalls, we could easily see areas with over ten inches of rainfall, especially if training occurs. There is a lso the potential for flodding, especially New Orleans since the city is below sea level. But the flooding rains won't be the only problem. The West Nile virus is spreading across the state and heavy rainfall will definitely not help the situation.

FORECAST TRACK The models are somewhat split as to how close the low center will move near the coast. Some take it right into southeast Lousiana while the others take it west along the coast. Either way, there won't be much in the way of weakening over the next 48 hours. But if the low were to stay close to the coast, we probably wouldn't see much in the way of weakening at all and possibly some slight strengthening. The current thinking, is that the center of circulation will pass just south of the city of New Orleans, unlike the National Hurricane Center's forecast of the low moving north of the city. After that, the low may exit the coast for a brief period of time just east of Houston, before making a second landfall in Texas. But we aren't talking about this low hitting Texas as a tropical depression or anything. We will be updating the forecast track later today.

FORECAST INTENSITY The forecast intensity depends mostly on the forecast track more than anything else. If the low stays near the coast, the depression will likely sustain 25-35MPH winds over the next 48 hours. But we think that the low will move slightly farther north, over land. Only slight weakening is forecasted over the first 24 hours of landfall. The National Hurricane Center may not downgrade the depression until its near the Baton Rouge area. Now there is still the potential of the depression developing into a tropical storm just before landfall. But the system probably won't have enough time to devleop much more.

If the depression does begin to slow down, it could mean three things...#1 The chances of the TD becoming a minimal tropical storm are increasing as the center stays over water. #2 Southeast Louisian will likely see more than 5-10 inches of rain in some areas, as the system would be a very slow mover. And #3 it could stay closer to the coast that forecasted. The system would give a high to its north more time to build south, which would force the system more westerly.

All residents from Biloxi to Houston should closely moniotr this depression. The current thinking is that the remnants of TD #2 will be in the Houston area roughly in 72 hours.

http://www.tropicalweatherwatchers.com

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DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL NEWS OR THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.