so they got a gale force wind obs in a squall near the ctr.. well, thats all it takes. bertha is right on the coast and doesnt look convectively like its going to get much stronger.. and in terms of areal coverage is tiny (like danny in '97). shawn the system would have to go due west or something to get to you.. looks like it's going onshore first half of tomorrow though. frank p and biloxi and steve in old metairie are the only guys likely to see much out of this one.. and it will probably only be rain and a stiff breeze. sometimes slow moving gulf systems will linger near the shore or track back over the water.. just have to play this one by ear. it's very weak.. 1008mb or so.. weak systems under weak steering currents mean hell to forecasting. the models pretty much want to move it along west as they analyze it as shallow. wont really move west until it starts decaying.. probably after it moves onshore tomorrow. bertha pretty much means a good rainfall in coastal mississippi and southeast louisiana for now.
well.. over here off my coast i dont know what to make of 99L. the apparent low is maybe 50-75 miles SW of charleston, maybe drifting S or SSE. convection is inland over the low country and coastal georgia, and some more is off to the east. another weak system that will be difficult to forecast. it has to get some core convection going before it will deepen much. 1015mb is a pretty high central pressure... that has to go down some. anyhow if it stays weak it will linger off the coast. if it develops then the next amplification will probably get it in a couple of days. otherwise it can develop later and come west when the ridge revs back up.
kind of tough to make any confident forecasts on 99L. fair confidence that bertha will go ashore and slowly weaken, probably turn west. not too exciting, but at least something of minor consequence finally developed.
HF 0040z05august