did a recheck on some closer in obs.. well, bertha is moving ashore. check the SE louisiana radar loop.. the center is drifting west and crossing the coastline near venice.. on the delta at least. well, if it moves west it will hug the coastline and stay at least partially intact. thats IF. obs at venice last hour were light rain, wind N 22mph gusts to 30, pressure at 1012 and falling. there does exist the possibility that it will intensify, i guess.. though id put money on it staying landed enough to start weakening. anyhow, shawn, you can start boarding up your windows and running for the hills any time, cause some of it will probably end up around you. naw, maybe you can go puddle jumping. or something.
anyhow 99L is on radar drifting SE. it is basically a weak convective swirl with some banding-like convection well to the east, with some sea breeze type thunderstorms onshore. this is another classic case of low here, convection there. remember, the 2002 theme? call me a spoilsport, but the two most likely scenarios i see here are: 1) the convection and swirl never meet, and begat cristobal.. or 2) the amplification to the north causes a baroclinic rush and organization, and thus we get a front runner that resembles arthur in every way, shape, and form.
possibilities outside that are certainly more interesting.. but after watching goofy system after goofy system i find it hard to conjure a scary system. those became rare about 40 years ago.. and are now believed to be extinct. dr. gray must be beating his head against his desk over the last two years.
HF 0125z05august