Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Aug 05 2002 04:18 AM
Bertha Update

FORECAST POSTED: 8/05/02/ 1200 AM EDT

CURRENT ACTIVE ATLANTIC STORMS...

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA

Slidell National Weather Service

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...MISSISSIPPI COAST AND PEARL RIVER COUNTY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

National Hurricane Center

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WEST AND SOUTH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...INCLUDING LAKE BORGNE AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.

Earlier, the National Hurricane Center forecasted the center of circulation to move north of New Orleans, towards Slidell, Louisiana. This would mean that the majority of the heaviest raifall would go north of the city. I forecasted the center to pass south of New Orleans. The latest track out of the NHC has shifted south. They now take the center south of the city, exactly what I forecasted earlier. This means that the heaviest rains will move over the northshore AND the city of New Orleans.

There is still some room for slight strengthening. The interaction with land could help tighten the center of circlation, if convection redevelops around the center. Now the latest infrared imagery indicated that convection is on the increase. The intensity should not change within the next 12 hours.

The center of circlation will be fairly close to the city by 3-6AM central time. That is also when the rain should begin. 4-8 inches of rainfall are likely in some isolated areas. Areas south and west of New Orleans like Houma, Louisiana shouldn't see nearly as much in the way of rainfall as areas to the north.

The next update will be at 4:00AM, including an update on current conditions.

CURRENT ACTIVE EPAC STORMS...


NO ACTIVE STORMS

FORECASTER Jason Moreland, TWWFT



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