10pm would seem to disagree with the NHC 10pm position. The winds at Boothville went from northeast with a falling pressure at 9pm to SE with a rising pressure at 10pm. The BURL1 buoy on the coast south of the mouth of the Mississippi has a west wind and rising pressure. The reporting station at Grand Ilse to the west of these has a north wind and is the only station in the vicinity that still has a falling pressure as as of 10pm. New orleans metro stations have NE winds with rising pressure. This would seem to indicate that the surface center is somewhere between Boothville, Grand Isle and the BURL1 bouy.

A check of the latest New Orleans radar loop also seems to show scattered light showers rotating cyclonicly in this area.

If the above is correct the surface low is probably moving off to the west slowly. It will be interesting to see if convection redevelops during the night near the surface low.

So yes Shawn what you see is probably the surface circulation just off the coast just to the west of Grand lLse. I don't think it's over for this system yet, tonight and tommorow will tell the tale. I think will will at least get wet in the Houston area later this week.