Jason M
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Aug 05 2002 03:49 PM
Re: SE area of interest

FORECAST POSTED: 8/05/02/ 11:30 AM EDT

ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK:

We are no longer writing discussions on tropical depression Bertha. The center of circulation is moving well inland and the heaviest rains should begin to diminish later today.

Now the attention shifts to the east coast...

Latest Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) numbers is now up to 2.0 for the low off the east coast. In addition, the National Hurricane Center will be sending out a reconnaissance aircraft into the low pressure system tomorrow to look for any signs of development. The low is becoming quite impressive on satellite imagery. In fact, we will likely have our next named storm within 24 hours.

The majority of the forecast models take this low south and then NE out to sea. This track seems fairly reasonable since a high over the east will block the low from moving west. In addition, an upper level troough is moving south and is expected to pull the low northeast. Now there is always the chance that the trough could miss the low but it does seem unlikely at this point. However, the east coast should continue closely monitor this developing low. Bermuda and Newfoundland will also have to watch this low as they may be in the path of this developing storm.

The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet. There is nothing else in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean Sea. There is one weak wave passing near Jamaica but it won't do a whole lot. There is another tropical wave just east of the Leeward Islands that will give them some showers. If we look way out into the eastern Atlantic, you will find a wave with a small flare up of convection. However, this wave is moving into an area of sinking air. Therefore, tropical development is not expected.

The next update will be posted between 5-7PM central time.

FORECASTER: Jason Moreland



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