Agree Joe, thought the call to take it NE was permature, but odds do favor it. But more doubt as of 11 pm discussion. The fact that it has remained weak has helped it get pushed further SSW. If it gets much further south it can avoid the impact of the trough and get cut off leaving it drifting until it gets under the influence of the high over the midwest, which could shove it westward. A definite possibility. Conditions would gradually improve after the trough passage if it did miss it. AVN may be a bit too aggressive plowing that cold front all the way into FL...so the trough may split. Could become trouble for the east coast of FL and points west if this happens. Cheers Steve H.