FORECAST POSTED: 8/07/02/ 6:00 AM EDT

CURRENT ACTIVE ATLANTIC STORMS...

Tropical Storm Christobal
National Hurricane Center

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST OR ABOUT 310 MILES...500 KM...EAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA.CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 3 MPH ... 6 KM/HR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

Despite the latest advisory from the NHC indicating a southward movement, the center appears to be moving more easterly. If this is the case, Christobal should easily get forced NEWD by the upper level trough to the north. The models are still indicating that this is still the most likely scenario.

What bothers me, is the convection southwest of the center of circulation. The cloud tops began to warm a few hours ago with the center becoming more exposed. Now, the center is continuing to become even more exposed. However, convection is beginning to refire once again south and west of the center. This concerns me because there is always that chance that a new center could form. IF a center would form that far south and west, Florida would be under the gun. However, besides the convection beginning to refire, there are no signs of this beginning to take place. Now if we begin to see a swirl farther south and west later today on visible satellite imagery, I would start talking about a greater chance of a landfall. But unless that happens, a slow easterly movement with a curve to the northeast remains likely. We will be monitoring the situation closely.

The intensity forecast also depends on the forecast track. If the trough and center move too close to each other, they may just merge and further development wouldn't occur. If the center slowly begins to move east and then northeast, winds would likely increase to near 60MPH as the energy from the trough would aid the system.

Now if the second track scenario were to take place, we would just see Christobal meandering around across the Bahamas. With the trough moving away, vertical shear would begin to decrease. Of course this would allow Christobal to easily strengthen further possibly to hurricane status. But we won't worry about this unless we begin to see evidence of a new center forming which there is no evidence of this happening as of yet.

I will try my best to update the discussions at around noon...but nothing is a garauntee. I am sorry for any inconveniance this may cause.

CURRENT ACTIVE EPAC STORMS...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN- E
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 124.3W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM. PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

Tropical depression #7 will not pose a threat to any landmasses and is not expected to strengthen.

FORECASTER Jason Moreland, TWWFT

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DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL NEWS OR THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

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