Christobal is an interesting study. As we've been noticing this year, almost everything splits. The llc is heading on out with the trof, but the convection continues to slip slowly southward. Will this energy pulse down into nothing or will it provide the energy for the next storm? They'll still call it Christobal but it will be another entity altogether. Watch the high behind the trof and what it does because this is another situation where the pattern can influence the weather immediately to the south of the high pressure. Most of the 00 model runs keep a piece of energy south while sending TS Christobal out to sea. They're not doing anything with the energy which shows up as a curve or bend in the pressure gradients.

Dr. Gray's new numbers are out, and he has IMHO drastically reduced the hurricane threat for the 2002 season. I doubt the numbers will ultimatey be as low as what he has now forecasted - 9/4/1. Only 4 hurricanes in the entire season with this type of setup? I just don't see it. There are some inhibiting influences from the point of view that hurricanes form from tropical waves crossing the Atlantic Ocean, but not from the point of view of things that can spin up at the tail end of a front or just out of the pattern itself. In 2002, I've argued against Dr. Gary Gray so I might as well argue against Dr. BIll Gray. My prediction of 13/8/3 may ultimately be too high, but I think 9/4/1 is too low.

Steve