Bertha began her comeback around midnight as was her trend over most of the last few days. I don't know how much rain moves inland or where it goes in. If history is with Bertha's down-pulse, convection should again weaken around 12-1pm today. However, due to the proximity of her to the Coast, I wouldn't guarantee anything.

Christobal is an enigma. He should have cruised on out to sea but still doesn't want to.

If you believe in Joe Bastardi, Apalachacola to Corpus Christi is basically out of the woods for the rest of the tropical season.

1) He had originally given a 1/1.7 from Apalachacola to Boothville (1 being landfalls, 1.7 being intensity rating). We had the 1/1 already in the landfall of Bertha. That leaves a 0.7 or potential influence from a tropical storm (or less) that doesn't make landfall in this range.

2) Boothville to Corpus Christi is a 1/1. This factors 1 landfalling tropical storm. If Bertha is a tropical storm and actually makes landfall in and around this area, that's a wrap. In any event, the 1 representing tropical storm conditions will have been satisfied leaving a classified landfall with less than tropical storm conditions remaining for the area.

IMHO, Joe has grossly underestimated the potential for the entire coast from Apalachacola to Corpus. I would expect there will be 2-3 more landfalls before the season is up in this area unless conditions change so dramatically that the Gulf closes up until 2003. Any thoughts?

Steve