There is a 45% probability of a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2002, a 35% probability of an above-normal season, and a 20% chance of a below-normal season, according to a consensus of scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the Hurricane Research Division (HRD), and the National Hurricane Center (NHC). This outlook represents the mixed combination of weak El Niño conditions and ongoing decadal-scale anomalies that are more conducive to an above-normal season.

The projected 2002 activity is centered approximately on the border between a near normal and an above-normal season, with a somewhat higher probability of being in the near-normal range. The 2002 season is not expected to be extremely active, as was observed during four of the last six seasons (1995, 1996, 1998, 1999). However, it is expected to be more active than most of the relatively quiet 1971-1994 period.