Wellll....

I'm not anti-seasonal forecast per se...I just have very little use for them...and in my "little pond" they are usually more of a hindrance than a help. I have a pretty small chunk of this area that I am responsible for...and when these forecasts are released for public edification and have, realistically, no true value to my forecast process, and actually create false perceptions on my clients (viewers) they can be a significant hindrance. I'm sure they are good for someone, and that they ARE helping advance the science, they don't do me or most operational forecasters a whole lot of good...indeed, they can be harmful in creating a level or hysteria, or a false sense of security. (I'm not using observed or model data that really doesn't relate to my forecast!

)

That is really my problem with these forecasts...not the forecasts themselves, but the interpretation of them, as to what they really mean to Joe Six-pack....which truthfully isn't much.

If Dr. Gray had made a forecast for 4 Hurricanes in 1992, most of the public would have written off the year as a very slow one...and in a Basin-wide sense, that would be correct...but not to residents of S FL or S LA.

However, we agree more than we disagree!

(Feeling better?)