I had to go against Dr. Bill Gray and NOAA since I've already gone against Dr. Gary Gray and Joe Bastardi. Just so there is no mistake, here's the recap:

1) I disagreed with Gary Gray's main premise from his forecast that storms this year were going to be mostly passing east of Cape Hatteras. I foresaw a much stronger ridge position with a westerly reach further than he predicted.

2) I disagree with Bastardi's landfall forecast because I, in no way, think the season is over from SE LA to Appalachacola. According to Joe, we've already gotten our tropical storm up here with the landfall of Bertha in St. Tammany Parish, LA. (His forecast was 1 landfall, 1.7 intensity from Boothville to Apalachacola. We've alredy had 1/1 and are only wating for the .7 according to him). What is interesting in his forecast is that he repeatedly refers to the 1985 season. We'll end up somewhere between 3/6 and 4/7 if '85 is a true analog. BTW, I sent Ken Reeves an e-mail for Point Counterpoint that I'm hoping he's going to use and/or call Joe on. It's something that I think Joe needs to address in light of the fact that he's already said he's not revising his forecast in his 8/12 (next Monday) re-issue.

So I guess I'm a lone-wolf in all of this, but I don't care. I said 13/8/3, and I'm sticking to it. The only way we don't approach these types of numbers is if the season suddenly comes to a screetching halt in mid-September.

Thanks for the rant time.

Steve