done vacationing. i see that nothing much has happened. watched on limited media bertha track back offshore and then fail to do anything interesting. lost track of cristobal.. which turns out to be pretty much what happened with everybody. and, of course, read the new forecast by dr. gray's bunch at colostate. not convinced.
gray has brought up some truly lazy analog years to describe the overall global picture. for one el nino doesnt look moderate at all, and for two inhibited deep tropics activity doesnt necessarily translate to what happens in the subtropics. anyhow who cares, i'm still on 12-8-4. yes i know that i only have one more tropical storm left. i hear you noaa, gray, ed dunham... but i must see this to believe.
three pathetic systems down, six or nine to go.
nothing looking particularly threatening in the basin. gulf watchers can only dream. area north of puerto rico is sort of interesting.. but doesnt look to be much of a surface feature. maybe a weak deep layer cyclone forming over subtropical waters off the mid atlantic along that old front, in spite of rising pressures. very far from getting a warm core.
and then there's the deep tropics. there is fair agreement that little will come from there this year.. this i can believe. the meatier waves havent arrived yet, neither has the subsidence or fast easterly flow left. anything from here will most likely have to work its way into the subtropics to develop. maybe a mid season storm or two will manage to squeeze through.
this coming week watch off the east coast or near puerto rico, with a lazy eye. globals dont really like anything out there and neither do i.
side note: you know in the old dukes of hazzard episodes, how it's set in north georgia but was obviously filmed in the hills outside los angeles? its starting to look like california up there.. drought is significantly worse than it is here. hardwoods are already shedding leaves, pine beetles are mangling the evergreens, and to top it all off the weeds are dying on the roadsides. a tropical system this year would be a godsend if it didnt wreck too much.
HF aikenSC 2110z11august