FORECAST POSTED: 8/11/02/ 9:15 PM EDT

Tropical Weather Outlook:

We are closely monitoring an area of low pressure located north-northeast of Puerto Rico. The low has become slightly better organized throughout the course of the day. In addition, convection is still on the increase. Some slow development is possible over the next 48 hours. Chance of development... 2/10.

Tropical Weather Discussion:

A large area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity is located across the entire Gulf of Mexico. The convection over the western Gulf is in response to the interaction between an upper level disturbance rotating around high pressure centered over North Carolina and a surface trough along the Texas and Louisiana coastline. The convection should fizzle tonight and redevelop tomorrow. Further organization isn't anticipated.

The other area of convection in the eastern Gulf of Mexico is related to a stalled frontal boundary over the EGOM that extends across the Florida peninsula and into the western Atlantic. In addition, there is an upper level low located over the southeast Gulf. This area needs to be watched. However, as long as the upper low stays in place, development won't occur.

The Caribbean Sea remains quiet. In the northwest Caribbean Sea, a weak tropical wave extends from Cancun, Mexico, through Honduras and Nicaragua. This wave is lacking convection and development is not expected. In the southwest Caribbean, we were watching a low pressure system near Panama. This low is over land and should move into the EPAC. Development from this low in the Atlantic basin isn't likely.

The central and eastern Caribbean Sea is very quiet. There is a weak wave over the Windwards but the majority of convection is farther north, over the southwest Atlantic Ocean. This wave has become slightly better defined over the past six hours. In addition, convection has also been on the increase. This low will have to be monitored closely. If development were to occur over the next 48 hours, it would likely get picked up by the same trough that forced Christobal northeast. If the low were to develop later on, a more WNW track would be the most likely scenario. This is all speculation at this point.

The central Atlantic is being dominated by dry sinking air being caused by the strong Azores high. The models continue to weaken the high over the next few days, lessoning the subsidence over the area slightly.

The next system we should keep an eye on, is a wave emerging off the coast of Africa. Yesterday, a strong wind surge moved off the coast, causing a squall line to develop. This was related to the wave about to exit the coast. The squall line isn't a good sign for development. However, the wave does have a nice circulation associated with it. Both the AVN and MRF (GFS) develop this wave once it reaches about 45W. Development seems unlikely but it does bear watching as we are getting to the point to where we need to keep a close eye on this region.

FORECASTER: Jason Moreland, TWWFT

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DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL NEWS OR THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

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