oops.. did the math and this is the 11th invest of the year, not 10th. only show around right now.. sideshow at this point. moving slowly wnw, fairly healthy convection.. but only a weak hint of circulation. probably not closed. yes jason as you said a trough wont get this system anytime soon.. but it is slowing the deep easterly flow and allowing the convection to cluster. shear analysis says mostly ok.. only issue now is whether a low pressure center will evolve. something to watch for next couple of days. fair.
deep layer low east of virginia looking less cold core with time.. but not making any great leaps or bounds. probably start accelerating NE in the next 24hrs, so not over warm water for much longer. slim to none.
bastardi kept mentioning a possible system developing in the eastern gulf and moving partway up the east coast. have to admit the convection has less of a dumb, sheared appearance today. something to watch, nothing to grasp at this point. there is some weak model support. slim.
anything developing this week will be slow to evolve... very little model support for anything, no big focusing mechanism. personal thought, best chances with 90L.
HF 1517z12august