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I'm inclined to agree with pretty much everything HF has to say about the tropics. 1. The convection in the western GOMEX looks to be assoicated with an upper-level trough...but may be of some slight interest. It is close to land and in the upper/mid levels...seems like something could slowly brew with perisistance and a water supply. Chance of development: 1/10. Wave north of Hispaniola:This wave is disorganized and lacks significant and perisistant convection. Development (if any) would be slow to occur and would likely take place in the GOMEX. If this does make it into the GOMEX...it could develop quite a bit there so it MAY be something to watch. Chance of development: 1/10 Fishland...aw, who give a damn about that place? Chance of development...0/10. East Atlantic: The wave nearing 42/43 west looks interesting. As HF said, it is coming out of the subsidence zone and may need to be watch for further development as it moves west. Conditions are favorable ahead of this system...and it appears to have some potential for very slow development. Chances of development:1/10 Well, we have a bunch of areas with a 0-10% chance of development. Better than nothing, right? Climatology says all hell should soon break lose in the tropics...it looks like that may happen over the next 20 days. Time will tell. Kevin |