FORECAST POSTED: 8/14/02/ 9:45 PM EDT

Tropical Weather Outlook

We are monitoring an upper level trough in the northwest Gulf of Mexico. This is an upper leavel feature. Therefore, development is not expected. We are also watching a tropical wave just east of the Lesser Antilles. Development, if any, would be very slow to occur. Conditions in the Caribbean Sea are marginal, at best. Tropical storm formation is not expected through Friday.

Tropical Weather Discussion

The convection in the Gulf of Mexico is associated with an upper level trough. For tropical development we need low pressure at the surface. Pressure in the area is about 29.85 inches and steady. Now earlier today, we did see a few pressure drops but that is normal for the Gulf during the afternoon hours. Now if the area had time to sit over water for a longer period of time, the greater potential of development. But the flow is out of the southwest. So this area of convection shouldn't remain offshore for a long period of time. Chance of development...10%.

We are watching another wave just east of Trinidad and Tobago. This wave is racing to the west...usually an inhibitor of development. the wave has shown some outflow and it does have moderate convection. However, conditions out ahead of the wave are unfavorable for development. There is fair amount of subsidence over the eastern Caribbean. In addition, the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) is centered over the central Caribbean Sea. The TUTT is causing a lot of vertical wind shear over the area. The SHIPS model takes the wave to a strong 63 knot tropical storm in 72 hours. But obviously, SHIPS is well overdone. Tropical development is not expected.

The wave that was over the Bahamas is now over southern Florida, causing isolated showers and thunderstorms. The wave will continue to a west to west-northwest track into the Gulf of Mexico. Development is highly unlikely.

There is still a very slim chance of development off the east coast later this week but don't count on it. Some of the energy from the disturbance that was in the eastern Gulf of Mexico a few days ago will emerge off the east coast. Anything that were to develop would move out to sea.

There are a couple waves worth mentioning in the eastern Atlantic. But none of them are showing signs of development and they won't be any threat to land for at least a week even if they were to develop.

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