Agreed Jason. Bob's show tonight was great. There was a lesson for the wishcaster in all of us. I like to talk about stuff I see out there, but you won't find me predicting a Cat-5 hitting Miami out of a t-storm complex at 10/32. I agreed with Bob's comments about comparisons of Gulf convection to Opal also.

Now having said all that, the Gulf may be warranting a second look. There's just something puzzling about the way the convection is firing up under that ridge.

http://www.tnrcc.state.tx.us/updated/air/monops/data/satellite/GULF/ir/latest.ir.jpeg

I don't know how out of date this will look when you get back to the thread, but the post is about 10:50pm CDT Wednesday. I posted my scenarios yesterday along with an addition today. But I'm out of ideas after 24 hours. One would think with the wave crossing Florida and this convection sitting to my SW, there is liable to be some pretty serious precipitation converging somewhere between Beaumont and Panama City in the coming days. A move to the west still seems unlikely in the near-term since the upper trofto its W and NW is holding this whatever-it-is at bay. In any event, it can't be completely ignored. Thursday's 24 hour buoy comparisons should provide some clues as to whether or not this blob has any life in it or not.

Steve