im not sure what steve thinks.. but its probably something like this: the nhc surface analysis is putting a dopey little low out there.. which is maybe a max on the wave. it is also at very low latitude. you dont tend to look for cape verde systems to come out of these things right on the itcz.. better chances with 'tall' waves that have convection all the way up their axis and not just little low amplitude itcz bumps. in other words.. you can watch it, but dont hold your breath waiting for it to develop.
the southeastern atlantic is looking better with time.. but still isnt ready. there have been times earlier this season when the itcz was shifted up and shear was weak.. but subsidence and the emaciated waves so far this year have kept it quiet.
other item of interest.. the eastpac is almost as quiet as it was last year during this month. remember how we almost made it through august 2001 without a named eastpac storm? flossie finally formed on the 26th. the activity level in the eastpac basin and atlantic sort of walked hand in hand.. so i wouldnt be surprised if both of them light up at about the same time this year.
anyhow i'm just not as impressed by cape verde storms as most other people here seem to be. almost all of them recurve. it's the late developers, as bastardi has named them, that interest me.
HF 1915z16august