usually get an icebreaker wave in mid or late august down in the cape verde that will develop.. followed by a couple of chains of development into september before that part of the basin switches off again. i'm just wondering when one of these waves will be energetic enough to start something. it isnt like the waves are plodding though a hostile atlantic and developing once they cross into the pacific.. theyre just all around weak. nothing's happening over there either just lately.
right now about the only possibles would be the shallow low in the central atlantic and the former gulf energy that has moved off the mid atlantic, arthur style. chances looking slim.
when's that negative mjo going to show up?
HF 1537z17august