there isnt a whole lot of deep layer moisture in the southeast part of the basin. waves coming off africa are all strangling. its like the sahara now extends 2000 miles out to sea. the wave coming off this evening is pretty big.. if the subsidence kills it too.. dont expect a lot to happen down there this season. wonder if the next mjo flip will break the pattern and allow something to get through.
there is some eastpac activity brewing possibly.. it's been a while. would expect the atlantic to respond about a week after the next eastpac system forms. this not based on any scientifically proven theory.. just something i've noticed sometimes happens.
still eyeballing the subtropics but with little faith. need a large amplification near the eastern seaboard or off it to make the area liven up.. not seeing that within the near future.
two more weeks left in august. almost a climatological certainty something happens during the timeframe... often a cape verde system. things dont look too good this evening though.
just a random observation: the cold sst spike west of peru has shrunk in coverage and intensity.. it dont think it stoppered the developing el nino, just jammed it for a while this summer. i dont think it will start altering the global circulation during the peak of the hurricane season.. but by the last half of october i'd expect the basin to be mostly under shear. noticed that gray's bunch isnt predicting much in october/november.. i'd guess on maybe an extra storm.. but if i'm going to come close on 12 storms, most of the 9 more i need have to happen in september. getting 8 to be hurricanes and 4 intense would be a miracle.
nope... not bailing out.. going down with the ship this time.
HF 0327z19august