the basin just hasnt seemed right since early in the month when the twin weakling tropical storms formed off the coast. then days like today come along and you wonder how things suddenly managed to look entirely different. not that i an certain things have changed.. but some innate sense tells me they have. things have looked futile, unlikely.. today they look.. half formed, again.
have to say bill.. that little feature off the carolinas... cant say i called it. i've been looking there and farther east at lingering features from old trough splits or mccs ejected off the mid atlantic.. whatever is off NC seems different. i didnt see it move off last night.. it was just THERE this morning. no kind of surface feature showing with it.. but in a fairly convergent environment.. so i can imagine such a thing coming together. if it hangs around for another 12 hours maybe that will happen.. but the ball isnt rolling just yet.
out in the central atlantic, around 34/48 there is that combination upper low/surface swirl that is finally associated with some convection. i had sort of gotten bored with the thing and decided that it would just fade out.. but there it is showing signs of life again. maybe my fish spinner wasnt such a dumb idea? well im not convinced here either.. but interested again.
the deep tropics.. well.. still less impressed than the rest of ya seem to be. wave at 35w is very well defined.. but skimming the itcz. so it is going on life support.. but not really doing anything for itself, per se. racing too.. yes it looks ok, but too many things could be wrong with it.
the massive complex that came off africa looks like a freshly sheared sheep.. or maybe like that fierce featured snowman in the nestea commercials becoming a skeleton. yes.. it DID look imposing. well... have to see how energetic the system will be from here.
tie all of this together, pair with something else: bastardi isnt a big mjo guy, its not something he can neatly index and track i guess.. but he did say sources are telling him maybe it will flip to the 'happy' phase later on this week. thats suspicious. supposedly the zone of slowed deep easterlies it creates moves like a big longitudinal blanket from west to east.. so the thing i'll REALLY be watching this week is the disturbance in the eastpac. that could be the start of a west to east chain of development.. if such a thing is occurring.
you guys hang in there.. it is august 19th... good chance we wont make it through the week without something getting tripped off.
HF 1718z19august