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This one deserves watching, well, obviously it does because it is close the coast. Here's whats going on: 1. No CLLC has formed yet. This MUST occur in order for TC development to occur. 2. Favorable upper-level winds. This could allow an CLLC to form fairly easily. 3. This system is very new, and convection must be maintained overnight to seriously suggest development. 4. The motion of this system NOW is very, very important to the future of it. If this system is indeed crawling south right now, it may miss the trough and head towards the northeastern Florida coast later this week. Of course, this would only matter if the system develops. Chance of development:3/10. Persistance and movement is everything. The wave that emerged off of Africa yesterday still looks decent, but has lost some convection. Development is more likely as this system moves further west. Chance of development: 2/10 That's my take on the tropics. As always, time will tell as to what happens. Kevin |