basin just looks different. look how much convection is out there.. from the caribbean on east. just get the feeling a switch has been flipped.. or is about to be. either my imagination took over or things are changing.
the nrl invest is goofy, but still sort of there. more convection is southwest of there around florida and also around the bahamas today.
wave in the western carib is in the shear zone under the bottom low on the TUTT.. but looking more active today. maybe over on the pacific side..
99L invest in the eastpac hasnt changed much.. still plenty of models calling for it to deepen. im sort of expecting this one to lead any atlantic development.
my central atlantic fish spinner candidate lingers on.. refusing to die or live. globals are actually still seeing it.
atlantic waves.. 40W is a little off the itcz now.. still has a fair presentation. an easterly surge knocked down its amplitude bigtime since yesterday, but it still has a decent signature around 10N. its best window for development is tomorrow through friday.
the trailer wave around 25W is very broad and not really far enough west yet to prove anything. if it still looks angry by thursday i'll pay closer attention.
cycloneye yes the next three weeks are critical to the CV season.. they ARE the CV season. well okay maybe more like the next four weeks, but it struck me as sort of.. duh. after about september 15-20th that part of the basin starts closing down from east to west.. to the islands by around mid october.
im sort of taken by the bastardi school of thought that we get development closer in this year.. so my overall response to hearing we wont get a persistent alley of storms off africa this year is so what. they mostly all recurve anyway. near the islands, western carib, SW atlantic.. more interesting.
anyhow.. be really weird if nothing forms in the next week.
nuff said, take it easy.
HF 2154z20august