Atlantic potential: There is a wave in the central Atantic today that looks OK at this time. Thunderstorm activity, despite an increase, remains limited. This wave will be monitored for development, but I believe the one about to come off of African may just be the one. Chance of development:2/10
African Wave: This wave has a massive area of convection assoicated with it, and I believe this one will hold together quite well. It should make the trip across...and may be the first major threat to any land/island areas for this season. Chance of development: 4/10

Inresting Bastardi said that the pattern this year is "classic" with a mean trof at 85W and a big, strong ridge sitting over the Western Atlantic. It does appear this is happening...so we just need storms to develop in the Atantic and the threats will likely emerge. Hell, that's pretty neat...this is like a "just add water" type thing.

Look at this:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/cmb/sst_forecast/images/cmb.recordxy.gif
Have you ever seen this type of El Nino? The forecast shows this one messing around and really doing nothing until about April 2003, then May, June, and BOOM! All of the sudden, a well-defined tongue of water is off of the South American coast with SSTA's over 2 degrees above normal coming from the west and east. I'd have to think that this won't even happen, or if it does, it will be in a much weaker form. I mean, how many El Nino's have you seen stay weak for a whole year and then explode? I don't think there has been any, but I'll have to look into this. However, I will say if the QBO switches to easterly early next year, that forecast may come to realitly. That would make the latter half of 2003 a wild and unpredictable weather year. We'll worry about that when the time comes, however.

Kevin