august 21st. more often than not we have an active system somewhere in the basin today.. not so this year. fausto got going in the eastpac today though.. and i havent dropped my earlier assumption that eastpac development would telegraph atlantic development.. though i think my proxy week timetable isnt going to work. id be very surprised if nothing is active before the weekend is over.
as usual.. place i think development is most likely is out near bermuda. the broad sfc low slowly windmilling under the northeastern TUTT low center is still there.. more of the globals like the post frontal low that is being resolved out of that shortwave off the NE coast. honestly think a fish spinner will lead the way.
tropical waves are confusing. the one near 45w i had the most stock in.. has in fact lost its amplitude and flattened into an itcz bump. so now im guessing the one following.. 30 to 35w or so will end up taking the forefront. no real skill to it.. waves are finicky things. bastardi was showing the series of lively waves coming down the pipeline.. so if mjo goes negative along with the nao slide about to drop.. maybe we will get the familiar alley of storms.
wave in the western carib.. energy seems to be sliding wnw. i doubt it will cause trouble.. unless whatever makes it up to the BOC slows down. hard to call.. since it is now upstream of a developing eastpac storm.
thats everything in the basin.. that isnt happening yet.
richie thanks for posting that article. theyve re-analyzed a high profile storm.. wonder if they plan to go revise more best track data. right off the bat i'm thinking celia in 1970 and betsy in 1965 could end up being turned up a notch.
frank p and colleen.. poking your faces back in when the basin is primed for its yearly outburst? dont blame ya.. all you missed were 3 pissant tropical storms and.. fore caster matthew. hopefully this represents a change of theme for the season.. annoying to interesting. dare i say.. fun?
good evening to all.. and good hunting.
HF 2205z21august