Possibilites: We're running sorta low on these at this time, all of the waves in the Atlantic look convection devoid despite pretty decent circulations. The wave at 30W has a circulation that looks like a tropical storm, but convection is minimal. All 1/10 chances.

Wave train: There are bombs over Africa at this time, but this means nothing it appears. Every sinlgle wave this year has fizzled come Atlantic waters. However, this wave train should moisten things up significantly and perhaps crank a storm or two up further west.

Mighty September: Could this September be wild like last year? Certainly, and in fact, I believe it will be. Except this year I expect about 4-6 storms this September, but a good percentage of these could make landfall in FLORIDA. Why? With the trof anchored in the means at around 85W and much of the activity expected to form at 60-70W, we could see many storms go south of Florida while developing and then recurve into the peninsula or panhandle. How much shear there is will determine the strength of much the activity...but with the pattern setting up like it is I believe Florida and maybe the northern GOMEX could be in for some trouble come September and early October.
Anybody care to dip their feet into the lava pool?

Kevin