i get the impression that we will have something to watch by memorial day weekend, though less than fifty fifty that it is tropical. most of the models are pretty persistent about wanting a low to kick up on the frontal tail left behind when this big longwave pulls out. good for two things: i'm tired of it not making 70 in the afternoon here, and the piece of energy left behind will probably form a cutoff that most models are thinking will have a surface reflection that meanders east of florida for days. on the other hand there's a good bit of convection over the w carib and central america underneath all this that might want to become something if it can find a nice shelter from all of the late spring shear.
still nothing to take seriously, but neat considering how dead things usually are this time of year.