Well the enviroment is coming into place in the atlantic and the carribean and we will start to see everything come together by the weekend.
Ive stated in many posts how i figured in May we would be slightly below normal with 7-8 storms of which 4-5 will be hurricanes of which 2 will be intense. I also said a couple weeks back nothing will form until labor day weekend and even over a week ago I said factors I look at appear to be around the 2nd with the system moving NE of the windward islands and very close to Puerto Rico and wnw puting up watches and maybe warnings for the Bahamas. I stated only 2 cape verdes will happen this year with the other moving NW and mostly threatening Bermuda but off to the east. I also stated that the carribean will be a factor with a system in early sept, but with el-nino really kicking in from Oct on. I see
the other 2-3 systems forming in the caribean from late sept into early Nov. So the total is 7-8 systems
Now the wave that should be the dolly of the future does have a mid level circulation and could be classified as a DPsoon BUT the enviroment still isnt there yet no matter what you hear. I dont see it becoming much more then that till it gets farther W by the weekend. In fact it might have to be reclassified as a TD or right away to Dolly when they fly a recon into her this weekend. I expect this system to then intensify moving WNW threatning the islands as I posted above. Now as I stated well over a week ago there will be a strong ridge over the mid atlantic states for the weekend into early next week, none mention this to just recently to make sure this will happen. The problem though for Dolly ( if she makes it this far) will be that she will be barely to Puerto Rico by then and to its NE. There will be then a trough breaking up the ridge over the mid atlantic later in the week causing her to scare the Bahamas and head N and NE away from the SE USA,. Of course nothing is set in stone cause the strength of the trough next week isnt well known yet, but this is a better then 50-50 chance.i will post more on this later.,
I also stated at the same time a area in the NW carribean will take shape by the weekend also and could become a player into the gulf. The system should move into Mexico though.
scottsvb hurricaneupdatecenter.