nhc is now saying a tropical depression may be forming sw of the CV. well, look at the nrl page and on the close up visible you can see banding in the low level field, focused right under the convective blow up. the thing has risen in latitude to 9N.. oh and i lost the ssd page with the dvorak ratings.. but this one is a go. nrl says 25kt/1008. globals dont have it initialized right, ukmet doing the best job in my opinion. west to wnw... near the islands middle of next week.
twd says surface pressures are falling with both the sw carib and bahama areas. sw carib doesnt look as well, upper trough has been depressing and clearing the area. going to be lots of convergence and some upper support building near the bahamas though, so bastardi is probably going to get his home grown feature.
other stuff: see the stuff south of louisiana.. unimpressive at this point. there has been plenty of convection in the gulf past few days by the upper cutoff over the TN valley, this piece is probably something left from the MCC that ran off tx/la yesterday. the other thing is a possible fish spinner. a convective frontal low along the trough off the NE coast is going to cut off and slow down north of bermuda next couple days before being kicked out. seeing as it already has some convection and will be over marginal water.. yeah, slim chance.
a lot to mention this morning, a lot more going on than has been just lately. 92L is an imminent development threat, and the bahamas area is whispering potential.
by the way, remember my guess that fausto was the precursor to atlantic development in about a week? fausto formed on august 21st, one week ago today. that guess might end up working out..
HF 1535z28august