bill.. think i see what youre talking about. that might just be another max on the EW trough that usually hangs off west africa this time of year. it's of note that the dvorak rating on 92L has gone up to 1.5 from the last analysis. naw, i dont think the feature to the SW is anything more than a itcz max inside the larger trough envelope... just look at 92L on the vis.. you can see it has its own clear identity within the area. to top it off, both are at very low latitude--the SW feature is really too far down to compete. to compress everything i just said.. i can see how the expected usual impediments enter the mind, but dont think theyll get this one.
the more immediate question right now is what comes out of all that mess from the bahamas east. several possible features could steal the show in the area.. if any do, then we'll probably get something on the doorstep of the SE this weekend. and then models are hinting at a low becoming discrete in the gulf by next week.
then theres the fish spinner possible, and the sw carib disturbance which refuses to fade... and i havent even started on the pacific.
mjo works wonders, doesnt it?
well, there might be a system named hernan running just off the mexican coast next week. some central pac activity (maybe another system near hawaii), and fausto's remnants are moving back into warm waters north of the hawaiian islands... possible rebirth.
another landfalling westpac typhoon too, pretty soon..
gee, thats the whole northern hemisphere.
HF TLH, FL 1846z28august