Looks like I'm well prepared for the test tomorrow, so, lets talk tropics. I saw the 5:30 PM TWO (thanks for posting it) and you said some lit a match off? Comparped to the last few weeks, it looks like someone set a bomb off in the Atlantic! I also see another area for the TWO later tonight, the wave moving off of Africa.
E Atl wave has lost some convection, but they always do this. The wave is going through and organizational phase and convection should explode later tomorrow. I'm also really tired of hearing the persistant bullshit about this wave dying before it reaches the islands. Um, last time I checked, the shear was going to lighten up significantly in the Caribbean by 48 hours, long before the wave ever arrives. The only problem I see is that it will encounter some shear around 45-50W, but I see it overcoming this.

The wave east of Florida should be a slow development candidate by the end of this week. An upper-level ridge is building in and that spells F-A-V-O-R-A-B-L-E.

The area of convection in the Caribbean looks more like a trof of low pressure than a wave, this is probably because of the shear. However, I am beginning to see a very slow development out of this as the ridge builds in.

Kevin