I think TD #4 heads WNW with a likely curve back to the west down the road. This would be due to weakening/remaining weak and involved with the low level flow. It's definitely a threat to the Islands. Models tend to always want to recurve CV systems, so that's not a surprise. It should also be no surprise that they're likely to back off on recurvature (further west) with each successive run.

As to Bill's post, that's where I'm looking too. The BoC actually shows some outflow, but this might be shear coming in over the top from the Pacific. The SW Carribean has been hot/cold for the last 4 days. It looked best yesterday, but has some symmetry now with it. Recon is scheduled to investigate tomorrow if warranted.

Tough call on either BOC or SW Caribbean as to eventual strength and landfalls. BoC probably would nose NNE/NE over time (unless pushed into Mexico or TX), SW Caribbean is anyone's guess. I don't have one

Steve