garyb
(Weather Guru)
Thu Aug 29 2002 07:16 PM
2:00 PM EST MODEL RUN ON TD #4

Hi Colleen our third or forth year doing this Ain't it great

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.


TROPICAL STORM FOUR (AL042002) ON 20020829 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...

020829 1800 020830 0600 020830 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 9.5N 32.2W 9.6N 34.3W 9.9N 36.8W

BAMM 9.5N 32.2W 9.6N 34.4W 10.0N 36.7W

A98E 9.5N 32.2W 9.5N 34.7W 9.8N 37.4W

LBAR 9.5N 32.2W 9.6N 34.6W 10.1N 37.5W

SHIP 35KTS 44KTS 52KTS

DSHP 35KTS 44KTS 52KTS



...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...

020831 0600 020831 1800 020901 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 10.2N 39.3W 10.7N 42.0W 12.0N 45.6W

BAMM 10.4N 39.0W 11.1N 41.4W 12.3N 45.2W

A98E 10.1N 40.1W 10.3N 42.8W 11.1N 47.5W

LBAR 10.7N 40.5W 11.4N 43.6W 13.4N 48.2W

SHIP 60KTS 68KTS 75KTS

DSHP 60KTS 68KTS 75KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 9.5N LONCUR = 32.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 12KT

LATM12 = 9.4N LONM12 = 29.9W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 13KT

LATM24 = 9.2N LONM24 = 27.1W

WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 50NM




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