were in an interesting place. there are several areas that are looking as if they may sprout us tropical cyclones, and one currently active. the sw carib system persists and looks better defined with time.. nrl has it as a 25kt invest. the disturbance moving west near 25/65 is firing some convection and finally showing a buckling in the low level wind field around it, on a NE/SW axis. there 1011 mb low in the gulf is also set to be a convergence zone and model hints that the low will persist only give it more cause for attention. the fish spinner candidate isnt developing, but retrograding west at 40n to the south of nova scotia (the newfoundland wheel, folks). then also the wave train looks healthy, with the wave at 52w showing signs of life under shear, and the one trailing td 4 probably carrying a good amount of energy with it.
summary: could get more storms in the next week than we've had so far this season.
by the way, nrl has td 4 as a 35kt storm now, even though the 2pm ssd fix had it still at 2.0. looks more symmetrical now, so there is some cause to rate it a t.s. will see what the nhc does in an hour or so.
ok, nuff o this. time to go register.
HF (less anonymous) tallahassee fl 1938z29august