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Posting this, cause well the opening comment by Avila just makes it worthwhile. TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU AUG 29 2002 THE BELL JUST RANG IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...HELLO DOLLY... SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS WELL DEFINED CURVED BANDS AND THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE CENTER IS NOT WELL ESTABLISHED YET AND IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME...THE FOURTH OF THE 2002 SEASON. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KNOTS AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER WARM WATER AND INTO LOW SHEAR. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC THAT COULD BRING STRONG UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS INDICATED LATER IN THE PERIOD. DOLLY APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 12 KNOTS SOUTH OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. BUT THE SAME TROUGH WHICH WILL BRING THE SHEAR WILL ALSO WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. CONSEQUENTLY...DOLLY SHOULD GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL...WEAKENS THE CYCLONE QUICKLY AND CREDIT SHOULD BE GIVEN. HOWEVER...FOR NOW LETS WAIT FOR THE MODEL NEXT RUN. IF DOLLY CONTINUES MORE WESTERLY THAN ANTICIPATED...IT WILL REMAIN IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...BUT NONE OF THE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS INDICATE SUCH WESTWARD MOTION AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 9.8N 32.7W 35 KTS 12HR VT 30/0600Z 9.9N 34.5W 40 KTS 24HR VT 30/1800Z 10.0N 37.0W 45 KTS 36HR VT 31/0600Z 10.5N 39.0W 45 KTS 48HR VT 31/1800Z 11.0N 41.5W 50 KTS 72HR VT 01/1800Z 12.0N 45.0W 50 KTS |