dolly is a weak system for now. if it doesnt increase in strength a whole lot, it should just continue west. keep in mind that if it does strengthen and begin to turn more NW, it will run into shear, weaken, turn back to the west. what i'm saying is, have fun getting this one to recurve early.
93L.. interesting that it still persists. it's been firing and refiring all week if i'm not mistaken. now there is a clear turning in the surface windfield, maybe a closed low. shallow layer flow is straight in to central america, but this one seems to be forming from persistent deep convection.. probably get steered more NW with the deep flow if it can get going... just force the inflow upward and get some violent convection going. thats if it can get any inner-core structure together in the short term. shear prospects arent great though.
the combination of a tropical wave nearing florida and existing surface trough in the central gulf might kick off enough convergence to.. you guessed it. surface pressures have been slowly falling in the area for a few days, just have to wait-see what goes down.
BOC.. bill... dont see that doing anything. shear and the fact its an extension of eastpac weather.
system east of florida, from an old trade wind disturbance that has been drifting wsw for days.. around 25/65 now. surface windfield has buckled around the convection some.. shear is bad just behind it.. but maybe supporting convection ahead of it. the upper TUTT Low chasing it wont follow it forever. various models are tracking this as a disturbance up to the carolinas. form it or not, they could use the rain.
wave at 53w or so looks fairly perky under all that shear. maybe a bother in a few days.
my fish spinner candidate, just like the one a week ago, refuses to do much. it is retrograding at 40N though.. not something you see everyday.
that is a mouthful, and quite enough. i've been posting on the last thread all day wondering why no one else was. my lovely computer doesnt want to refresh pages, it seems.. so i killed the store page feature.. hope that deals with it.
fin.
HF 2106z29august